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Abstract #2387

Statistical prediction of recurrence-free survival at 10 years in breast cancer patients

Isha Punn1, Renee Cattell1, Pauline Huang1, James Kang1, Thomas Ren1, Varsha Talanki1, Ashima Muttreja1, Sarah Dacosta1, Jules Cohen1, Haifang Li1, Lea Baer1, Cliff Bernstein1, Sean Clouston1, Roxanne Palermo1, and Timothy Duong1

1Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States

This study examined whether axillary lymph-node size accurately predicts or improves prediction of 10-year recurrence-free survival. We found that for single-variable analysis, the top predictor of recurrence-free survival was pre-neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) nodal volume (AUC=0.67), followed by pre-NAC tumor volume (AUC=0.66). In 4-variable analysis, the top set of predictors was pre-NAC nodal volume, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) positivity, pre-NAC tumor volume, and tumor volume difference between pre- and early-NAC time points (AUC=0.79). This is the first study of investigating prediction performance of recurrence-free survival using longitudinal volume change of axillary lymph-node volume in breast cancer patients.

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