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Abstract #4447

Effectiveness of 6 monthly MRI screening for breast cancer in women with a BRCA mutation – a numerical simulation.

Keith S Cover1, Joost PA Kuijer1, Mark MB Hofman1, Jeroen Veltman2, Monique D Dorrius3, Ritse M Mann4, and Katya M Duvivier1

1VU University Medical Center, Amsterdam, Netherlands, 2ZGT Hengelo, Hengelo, Netherlands, 3University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands, 4Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen, Netherlands

Currently, MRI screening for breast cancer in women with a BRCA mutation is annually. However, studies on tumour doubling times indicate that some tumours grow faster. To assess the value of more frequent screening we numerically simulated annual and 6 monthly screening based on reported tumour doubling times in women with the BRCA mutation. For annual screening, the simulation predicted 14% of cancers with poor prognosis (diameter > 2 cm), in line with clinical studies. For 6 monthly screening the simulation predicted 3% with poor prognosis. Therefore, 6 monthly screening should yield a substantial reduction in tumours with a poor prognoses .

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